The Unofficial Pandemic Influenza FAQ

I'm going to try to discuss an important current event in much the same manner as Dymaxion World does on a daily basis. This is difficult for me, as Dymaxion World regularly uses words that are too big for me to understand, but here goes nothing.

Pandemic influenza. Experts have been warning us about this, and people are finally starting to take them seriously. If you're not sure what I'm talking about, check the World Health Organization's Avian influenza FAQ. So there is a risk that avian influenza will mutate into a human-to-human transmission capable disease, and cause the next influenza pandemic.

Q: What are the odds that Avian influenza will mutate into a pandemic strain?
A: No matter what the experts will say, the answer is that nobody knows. Even the common influenza strains mutate, but for a pandemic strain to be created, there has to be a significant genetic change, that's usually the result of two completely different influenza strains swapping segments of DNA. Nobody knows how often this occurs, but the more Avian influenza that is out there, the more likely it will happen.

Q: So what's the plan if there is an outbreak in Canada?
A: Well, the World Health Organization has a plan, and the federal government has a plan, and your provincial government has a plan. Looks like we are pretty prepared, right? Well, if you take a close look, the plans are pretty vague as these plans have been made by committees, and really don't get down to details.

Q: So, what's really going to happen if there is an outbreak in Canada?
A: News of the outbreak is going to get out pretty fast, and all the proper public health organizations will be notified. Then there will probably be a period of confusion when all these agencies sit around waiting to see what the other agencies will do. Who will take the lead on this? Who will be responsible? Who will act first? One of three scenerios will happen:

• 1) Nobody will react. There will be fingerpointing and dumping of responsibilities onto other agencies. The outbreak will continue, and panic will set in. There will be press conferences urging people to remain calm, but very little will actually be done to stop the outbreak.
• 2) Everyone will react. Many agencies will all jump into the fray, and get into each other's way, and argue about the proper way to handle things. The situation will become very political, but at least things are getting done... sometimes twice. The public will get mixed messages, but the general message will be that the situation is under control and people should remain calm.
• 3) Everyone will overreact. Agencies will demand crazy impractical actions that may not be the most effective options. Bureaucracy will create a response that made sense on paper, but completely incorrect when actually implemented. The people will begin to worry, and probably panic.

Q: What about making a vaccine?
A: That's honestly our best bet, but unlike what you see in the movies, a vaccine takes a very long time to make and test. Steps are being taken to speed up the development and approval of such a vaccine, when it is created. My bet is that the CDC will generate the vaccine first, and hopefully pass on the information to vaccine manufacturers globally. Still, this will probably take over a year to make. Once the vaccine is available, it will only be distributed to high risk groups because there won't be enough for everyone.

Q: What about anti-viral medication?
A: People are already stockpiling on an anti-viral medication which has been shown to be effective against Avian influenza. This medication does not grant long-term protection like a vaccine would, so you would have to take regular doses of it... assuming it will be effective against the new mutant strain. Even if it is effective, the country's supply of this drug will only be distributed to high risk groups because there won't be enough for everyone.

Q: What if I'm not considered a high risk group?
A: You'll probably be advised to wash your hands frequently, stay at home if you are sick, and contact health officials (by phone) if you have influenza symptoms. The public will likely wear masks and gloves whether by reccomendation or personal choice. For some reason, people will stockpile on bottled water and canned food. I'm not sure why, but I know they will.

Q: What's the worst thing that can happen?
A: Mass panic. That's why a lot of the official plans involve reassuring the public that everything is okay. Seriously though, mass panic would really really be bad. Imagine someone with a cold in a subway car or a crowded mall...

Q: But this is exactly what happened with SARS, right?
A: It's generally believed that pandemic influenza will have a higher mortality rate than SARS. I'm not sure about the pathology of Avian influenza, but it's possible that the symptoms of pandemic influenza will make it easier to spread to other people. Since we are talking about a hypothetical mutant strain, this is only speculation. The good thing is that we will probably be able to adapt a diagnostic test to detection the pandemic influenza strain, since we already have such tests for Avian influenza and common influenza.

Q: Do you really know what you are talking about?
A: Okay, I'm not a doctor or an infectious disease expert. This is just my opinion, and it should only be taken as a non-professional opinion. My advice if pandemic influenza strikes Canada is not to panic... and stay the hell home if you are sick!